I remember growing up, power cuts were so rare they were
exciting. Back down sarf Lahndan we shared the grid with a hospital, so power
cuts almost never happened. In turn making them fascinating but spooky things when
they did occur. Nowadays power cuts in the western world are almost unheard of.
In five years of living in Belgium we have only lost power twice, once at work
and once at home.
Bit of a contrast to the last week in Kenya then, where
rains have caused all sorts of havoc with the power. The first power cut was on
Saturday night. As Sunday's the only day I don't have to be up by 7, Saturday night has become entertainment
night; movie, net catch up etc. But last Saturday power went out at 7pm,
meaning Saturday night looked something like this:
Very romantic Saturday night... except I was alone "und nichts war so klar" |
It's interesting how much we have come to rely, directly or
indirectly, on electricity for just about any form of entertainment. By 930pm,
with efforts to read by candlelight having induced sleep rather than imparted
knowledge, boredom and tiredness consigned me to bed.
Sunday was similarly interrupted by sporadic power cuts,
which resulted in the weekly wash being done by hand. It's been a few years
since I've done a hand wash quite as big!
Then Monday I came to the worksite to find 10 guys sitting
down smoking a cigarette. No it wasn't a labour revolt. Yet another power cut
meant that the carpenters and welders could do pribbling-idle-headed-giglet
all, so were sitting around smoking and talking about football. I joined them to
contribute to the latter part without doing the former. Thankfully full power was returned to the site
on Tuesday otherwise it could have turned into a major time and money waster.
So three major cuts in three days. But why is this? The
answer is not to be straighforwards. Let's look at three issues of power;
supply, transmission and demand in Kenya.
In terms of supply, Kenya faces serious challenges. Most
western countries use coal, gas or nuclear fired plants with renewable to top
it up. In Kenya, this relationship is, surprisingly enough, reversed. Renewable
energy sources make up the bulk of energy supply (hydroelectric alone accounts
for well over half of energy generation with geothermal and wind also providing
a significant contribution, and solar is emerging as a further option).
Combustibles are then used to top up the renewable supply. The problem is that
there is very little in the way of suitable fuel for power stations in Kenya,
making combustibles an unattractive option in general. Petrol generators are
often introduced in times of shortage as the emergency backup, but the cost of
running them is constrictive so they are used sparingly. Power supply is
therefore very dependent on environmental factors linked to renewable, and hence climate cycles.
To add to this, generation capacity is low. To put Kenya's
generation capacity in proportion; the country has a population greater than
that of California (45m versus California's 40m), yet it's has 1/40 of the
generation capacity .
Then comes the problem of transmission. More specifically,
transmission requires wires and transformers, and these are made out of metal.
Metal which has a value, and consequently often mysteriously disappears. So one
day you may find your electricity not working as part of the transmission
network has grown legs and gone somewhere else. The Kenyan government has
introduced a ban on the sale of scrap metal for recycling in order to tackle
this and other problems, but the scrap metal business continues, just with a
different price structure to reflect the risk. (Incidentally, the boom of mobile phones in Kenya and various parts of
Africa is, in my opinion, due at least partly to the chance to bypass the
costly, wired transmission network in a
country which covers an area 2.5 times greater than the UK).
Finally comes the demand problem. Penetration of electricity
in Kenyan homes is pretty low; according to some estimates, as few as only 20%
of Kenyans live in homes with electricity. Now this figures is a bit distorted
as in areas such as Nairobi the proportion is probably a lot higher, and in
remote areas a lot lower; on balance I reckon 20% is too low, it's probably
closer to 40%, but that's a personal guesstimate and it is still a minority. Nonetheless
(and almost unsurprisingly, giving the growing middle class) it is estimated that demand in Kenya for
power is growing at about 8% per year, consequently putting further strain on
the limited generation capacity.
So limited generation capacity (and options) + transmission problems + increasing demand = high
likelihood of power cuts, like last week. But it's just part of life here. It
makes one realise how reliant on electricity we have become, and in a world of
decreasing resources, that we should not take electricity for granted.