Blacking out

I remember growing up, power cuts were so rare they were exciting. Back down sarf Lahndan we shared the grid with a hospital, so power cuts almost never happened. In turn making them fascinating but spooky things when they did occur. Nowadays power cuts in the western world are almost unheard of. In five years of living in Belgium we have only lost power twice, once at work and once at home.

Bit of a contrast to the last week in Kenya then, where rains have caused all sorts of havoc with the power. The first power cut was on Saturday night. As Sunday's the only day I don't have to be up by 7,  Saturday night has become entertainment night; movie, net catch up etc. But last Saturday power went out at 7pm, meaning Saturday night looked something like this:

Very romantic Saturday night... except I was alone "und nichts war so klar"

It's interesting how much we have come to rely, directly or indirectly, on electricity for just about any form of entertainment. By 930pm, with efforts to read by candlelight having induced sleep rather than imparted knowledge, boredom and tiredness consigned me to bed.

Sunday was similarly interrupted by sporadic power cuts, which resulted in the weekly wash being done by hand. It's been a few years since I've done a hand wash quite as big!

Then Monday I came to the worksite to find 10 guys sitting down smoking a cigarette. No it wasn't a labour revolt. Yet another power cut meant that the carpenters and welders could do pribbling-idle-headed-giglet all, so were sitting around smoking and talking about football. I joined them to contribute to the latter part without doing the former. Thankfully full power was returned to the site on Tuesday otherwise it could have turned into a major time and money waster.

So three major cuts in three days. But why is this? The answer is not to be straighforwards. Let's look at three issues of power; supply, transmission and demand in Kenya.

In terms of supply, Kenya faces serious challenges. Most western countries use coal, gas or nuclear fired plants with renewable to top it up. In Kenya, this relationship is, surprisingly enough, reversed. Renewable energy sources make up the bulk of energy supply (hydroelectric alone accounts for well over half of energy generation with geothermal and wind also providing a significant contribution, and solar is emerging as a further option). Combustibles are then used to top up the renewable supply. The problem is that there is very little in the way of suitable fuel for power stations in Kenya, making combustibles an unattractive option in general. Petrol generators are often introduced in times of shortage as the emergency backup, but the cost of running them is constrictive so they are used sparingly. Power supply is therefore very dependent on environmental factors linked to renewable, and hence climate cycles.

To add to this, generation capacity is low. To put Kenya's generation capacity in proportion; the country has a population greater than that of California (45m versus California's 40m), yet it's has 1/40 of the generation  capacity .

Then comes the problem of transmission. More specifically, transmission requires wires and transformers, and these are made out of metal. Metal which has a value, and consequently often mysteriously disappears. So one day you may find your electricity not working as part of the transmission network has grown legs and gone somewhere else. The Kenyan government has introduced a ban on the sale of scrap metal for recycling in order to tackle this and other problems, but the scrap metal business continues, just with a different price structure to reflect the risk. (Incidentally, the boom of mobile phones in Kenya and various parts of Africa is, in my opinion, due at least partly to the chance to bypass the costly, wired transmission network  in a country which covers an area 2.5 times greater than the UK).

Finally comes the demand problem. Penetration of electricity in Kenyan homes is pretty low; according to some estimates, as few as only 20% of Kenyans live in homes with electricity. Now this figures is a bit distorted as in areas such as Nairobi the proportion is probably a lot higher, and in remote areas a lot lower; on balance I reckon 20% is too low, it's probably closer to 40%, but that's a personal guesstimate and it is still a minority. Nonetheless (and almost unsurprisingly, giving the growing middle class) it is estimated that demand in Kenya for power is growing at about 8% per year, consequently putting further strain on the limited generation capacity.

So limited generation capacity (and options) +  transmission problems + increasing demand = high likelihood of power cuts, like last week. But it's just part of life here. It makes one realise how reliant on electricity we have become, and in a world of decreasing resources, that we should not take electricity for granted.